Opinions About AI Don’t Matter - The Adoption Curve Does

Happy Friday,

Most arguments about AI in engineering miss the point. People treat it like a debate you can win or lose with a good opinion. The truth is far simpler and more powerful: AI adoption follows a well-understood pattern called the Technology Adoption Curve, and that curve is methodically, predictably moving through our industry right now.

Here’s how it works:

The Five Stages of Adoption

• Innovators (2.5%) - The experimenters. They jump on new tools early, even when they’re imperfect.
• Early Adopters (13.5%) - The smart competitors. They see the potential and start using AI to gain real advantages.
• Early Majority (34%) - The practical majority. They wait for proof that it works reliably before committing.
• Late Majority (34%) - The cautious group. They only adopt when clients demand it, or they start losing work.
• Laggards (16%) - The resisters. “We’ve always done it this way” is their motto.

What This Means for AI in Engineering Right Now

The early wave of AI use cases is transitioning from the Early Adopters phase into the Early Majority phase in civil and consulting engineering.

• Some firms are already using AI for alternative design generation, simulation, and optimization, and they’re winning work because of it.
• Many others are still sitting on the fence, waiting for more case studies or waiting until ‘it’s ready.’
• A smaller group remains actively skeptical or dismissive.

The competitive market doesn't care about opinions.

Markets relentlessly reward anything that delivers more output at lower cost. When a tool dramatically improves productivity, the companies that adopt it can charge less and deliver greater value, winning more work. Those that resist ultimately lose market share, clients, and talent. None of this is optional.

The market doesn’t reward the firms with the strongest opinions. It rewards firms that move up the curve faster than their competitors. As with the transition from hand drafting to CAD, firms that adopted early gained a competitive edge. The ones that waited or resisted eventually had to adopt anyway, usually at lower margins and after losing ground.

Punchline: You don’t need to love AI. Opinions about it are interesting, even valid, but are ultimately irrelevant and inconsequential. You just need to decide where you want your firm to sit on the curve and take deliberate steps to move forward. Then you can stop wasting energy on debates and start focusing on what actually matters to your business and its people:

• What AI tool should we pilot right now?
• Which clients would value AI-enhanced speed and insight?
• How do we train our team to work alongside AI instead of competing with it?
• What's the endgame?

Have a wonderful weekend,

Dave

Feedback and blowback are always welcome: dave@goodnewsfriday.com

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